{"id":16060,"date":"2020-05-07T09:00:18","date_gmt":"2020-05-07T07:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.azti.es\/?p=16060"},"modified":"2020-07-31T23:40:08","modified_gmt":"2020-07-31T21:40:08","slug":"predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul><li>The technology centre, AZTI, has participated in an international research study to find out how reliable projections of today\u2019s fisheries forecasting models are in the North-East Atlantic.<\/li><li>The main conclusion of the study is that the models used for climate change impacts on commercial marine fish species are reliable in terms of the analysis of general decadal-scale trends, but they present limitations when they focus on a particular species in a specific area. <\/li><li>A team of modellers and researchers from Europe and Canada have participated in the research, which has been published by the prestigious journal,  <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15081\" target=\"_blank\">Global Change Biology<\/a> ,<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Pasaia, on 7<sup>th<\/sup> of May 2020<\/em>. \u2013 Understanding how the physical and biological world reacts to climate change is a challenge that science must contend with. To accurately assess how species might respond to global warming the reliability of simulation tools must be tested. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this context, the technology centre, AZTI, has coordinated a study, published in the prestigious journal  <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15081\" target=\"_blank\">Global Change Biology<\/a>, <\/em>which compared fisheries model projections of the abundance of fish and their geographical distribution with catch data from North-East Atlantic surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe wanted to know if current fish forecasting models are effective under different climate change scenarios, by verifying their reliability and to reach a better understanding of how much these models can be relied upon to draw scientific and fish management conclusions\u201d, according to  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azti.es\/equipo\/jose-antonio-fernandes\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"undefined (abre en una nueva pesta\u00f1a)\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Josean Fernandes<\/a> , the AZTI <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azti.es\/en\/research-areas\/sustainable-fisheries-management\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"undefined (abre en una nueva pesta\u00f1a)\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Sustainable Fisheries Management<\/a> expert. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16055\" srcset=\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-450x253.jpg 450w, https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-900x506.jpg 900w, https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado-992x558.jpg 992w, https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2>Global perspective vs specific focus<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Las principales conclusiones del estudio revelan que los modelos son fiables cuando se trata de analizar tendencias generales y, por lo tanto, pueden ser proyectados bajo escenarios de cambio clim\u00e1tico. Sin embargo, presentan limitaciones cuando el an\u00e1lisis se circunscribe a una especie o zona concreta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The study concludes that the models are reliable when the aim is to\nanalyse general trends. However,\nthey have limitations when the analysis is confined to a specific species or\narea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe larger the scale at which the results were analysed, the more the fisheries\nmodels coincide with the oceanographic survey data. Results also improve when referring to total catches of several species\nand not to individual species\u201d, the AZTI expert states. \u201cThe results of the study can be used to guide fisheries management at\nlarger spatial scales, but greater caution is required at smaller scales. The application of these models to a species or small area will require\na detailed analysis at local level of the model\u201d, he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A team of modellers and researchers from Europe and Canada have taken\npart in this work, with collaboration from, in addition to AZTI, Plymouth\nMarine Laboratory, University of Exeter, University of Bern, National\nOceanography Centre of Southampton, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change\nand University of British Columbia. The work\nplaces emphasises where we need to focus efforts to improve the models for\nfuture research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOur study also questions whether it is time for a change of mindset, to\nnow place our emphasis on mitigation and adaptation actions, both in science\nand in society, instead of focusing on estimating and questioning the possible\nconsequences\u201d, Fernandes reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To develop this study, promoted by several European and national\nresearch projects, the team used eight updated ocean biogeochemical models that\ndescribe the way in which climate change is going to affect the physical,\nchemical, geographical and biological conditions of the North-East Atlantic, including\ntemperature, nutrients and plankton. And how\nthose changes in environmental conditions affect projected changes in\ndistributions, abundances and biomasses of commercial fish species in various\nspatial scales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Paper<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Can we project changes in fish abundance and\ndistribution in response to climate? by Jose\nA. Fernandes, Louise Rutterford, Stephen D. Simpson, Momme Butensch\u00f6n, Thomas\nL. Fr\u00f6licher, Andrew Yool, William W. L. Cheung, Alastair Grant in <em>Global Change Biology, <\/em>DOI: 10.1111\/gcb.15081.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Notes\nto editors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper will be available via: <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15081\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"undefined (abre en una nueva pesta\u00f1a)\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">https:\/\/www.doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.15081<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The technology centre, AZTI, has participated in an international research study to find out how reliable projections of today\u2019s fisheries forecasting models are in the North-East Atlantic. The main conclusion [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16057,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":[],"_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[447,345,344,352,813],"tax-big-challenge":[33,36],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v18.4.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work? - AZTI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work? - AZTI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The technology centre, AZTI, has participated in an international research study to find out how reliable projections of today\u2019s fisheries forecasting models are in the North-East Atlantic. The main conclusion [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AZTI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-05-07T07:00:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-07-31T21:40:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Irantzu Zubiaur\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/\",\"name\":\"AZTI\",\"description\":\"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Marina y Alimentaria\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":675,\"caption\":\"abundancia-pescado\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/\",\"name\":\"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work? - AZTI\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#primaryimage\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-07T07:00:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-07-31T21:40:08+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#\/schema\/person\/30eefd05fc72f0713921c022db300e43\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Inicio\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#\/schema\/person\/30eefd05fc72f0713921c022db300e43\",\"name\":\"Irantzu Zubiaur\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#personlogo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0ca8e5396f45225b8efed7875b3df8ec?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0ca8e5396f45225b8efed7875b3df8ec?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Irantzu Zubiaur\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/author\/irantzu\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work? - AZTI","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work? - AZTI","og_description":"The technology centre, AZTI, has participated in an international research study to find out how reliable projections of today\u2019s fisheries forecasting models are in the North-East Atlantic. The main conclusion [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/","og_site_name":"AZTI","article_published_time":"2020-05-07T07:00:18+00:00","article_modified_time":"2020-07-31T21:40:08+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":675,"url":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Irantzu Zubiaur","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#website","url":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/","name":"AZTI","description":"Centro de Investigaci\u00f3n Marina y Alimentaria","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#primaryimage","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/abundancia-pescado.jpg","width":1200,"height":675,"caption":"abundancia-pescado"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/","name":"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work? - AZTI","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#primaryimage"},"datePublished":"2020-05-07T07:00:18+00:00","dateModified":"2020-07-31T21:40:08+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#\/schema\/person\/30eefd05fc72f0713921c022db300e43"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/predicting-the-future-fish-of-the-day-how-well-do-our-models-work\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Inicio","item":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Predicting the future Fish of the Day? How well do our models work?"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#\/schema\/person\/30eefd05fc72f0713921c022db300e43","name":"Irantzu Zubiaur","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","@id":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/#personlogo","inLanguage":"en-US","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0ca8e5396f45225b8efed7875b3df8ec?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0ca8e5396f45225b8efed7875b3df8ec?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Irantzu Zubiaur"},"url":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/author\/irantzu\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16060"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16060"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16060\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17365,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16060\/revisions\/17365"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16057"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16060"},{"taxonomy":"tax-big-challenge","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tax-big-challenge?post=16060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}