{"id":12362,"date":"2019-06-12T11:07:21","date_gmt":"2019-06-12T09:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.azti.es\/el-calentamiento-de-los-mares-podria-llevar-a-un-17-menos-de-biomasa-de-especies-marinas-a-nivel-global-a-finales-de-siglo\/"},"modified":"2019-06-12T12:00:12","modified_gmt":"2019-06-12T10:00:12","slug":"comprehensive-global-analysis-shows-a-warmer-ocean-will-hold-lower-animal-abundance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/old.azti.es\/en\/comprehensive-global-analysis-shows-a-warmer-ocean-will-hold-lower-animal-abundance\/","title":{"rendered":"Comprehensive global analysis shows a warmer ocean will hold lower animal abundance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Climate change will affect the distribution\nand abundance of marine life, but the full extent of these changes under future\nwarming has been difficult to predict due to the limitations of individual\necosystem models used for such forecasts. However, by combining such models, a\nmore complete picture can emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reporting in the Proceedings of the\nNational Academy of Sciences <\/em>on Tuesday, June 11, an international group of\n35 researchers from 12 countries and 4 continents presents a comprehensive\nglobal-ocean assessment of climate change by using a combination of multiple climate\nand ecosystem models. This model \u2018ensemble\u2019 reveals that global marine animal\nbiomass \u2013 the total weight of marine animals such as fish, invertebrates and\nmarine mammals in the ocean \u2013 will decline under all emission scenarios, driven\nlargely by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production. The extent\nof projected losses can be constrained by emission reductions, with only a 5%\ndecline under a strong mitigation scenario, but 17% under business-as-usual\nemissions by the end of the 21st<\/sup> century. Notably, the magnitude of\nthis climate change effect was similar in an ocean with and without fishing\npressure.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cReduction of greenhouse gas emissions will undoubtedly help to safeguard marine life as much as possible against further losses<\/em>\u201d says Lead Author Heike Lotze from Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The analysis also suggested that climate-change\nimpacts may be more severe at higher food-web levels, meaning that fish and\nmarine mammals may suffer more severe declines compared to phytoplankton. This\nprocess is called \u2018trophic amplification\u2019 and describes the particular\nvulnerability of animals such as large fish at the higher ends of marine food\nchains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur findings suggest that larger marine\nanimals, many of which are already of conservation concern, could show a particular\nvulnerability to climate-driven declines, with a domino effect from\nphytoplankton up the food chain<\/em>\u201d adds co-author Derek Tittensor of the UN\nEnvironment World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge, UK. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mapping the projected changes in the global\nocean (see Figure below) revealed that biomass will decline in many temperate\nto tropical ocean regions where people are highly dependent on seafood supply\nand where marine biodiversity is already affected by cumulative human impacts. Here,\nclimate change is creating another layer of stress onto marine ecosystems and\nhuman societies alike. In contrast, many polar regions around the Arctic and\nAntarctica could show biomass increases which may provide new opportunities for\nmarine resource use but also challenges to marine management and conservation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe fact that the estimated climate-change\nimpacts are independent of fishing provides an added incentive to develop\nsustainable and adaptive fishing, responsive to climate change, which we need\nto feed a world of 9 billion humans<\/em>\u201d says co-author Manuel Barange,\nDirector of Fisheries and Aquaculture at the Food and Agriculture Organisation\n(FAO) in Rome, Italy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe synthesis of results from all the\nstate-of-the-art analytical tools provide the important conclusion that climate\nchange is impacting marine biota across the global ocean. The findings\nreiterate the need for strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emission in order to\nlimit such impacts<\/em>\u201d says co-author William Cheung from the Institute for\nthe Oceans and Fisheries at the University of British Columbia and a\nCoordinating Lead Author for the IPCC Special Report for the Oceans and\nCryosphere in the Changing Climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We know that food production on\nland is increasingly put at risk by climate change impacts, such as extreme\nheat and drought. This study adds another disconcerting chapter to the global\nwarming story, by confirming that human-made climate change endangers food\nresources in the oceans, too. In 2015, all nations agreed upon the Sustainable\nDevelopment Goals. One of them is to achieve zero hunger by 2030. Our research\nshows that this will require not only a much more careful management of natural\nresources, but also rapid reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions<\/em>”\nadds co-author Jacob Schewe from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact\nResearch in Potsdam, Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese kinds of findings can bring\nuncertainty and anxiety. However, it is always better to be prepared and there\nis hope. By being smart about using such information we can still have\nsustainable fisheries now and into the future<\/em>\u201d says co-author Beth Fulton\nbased at CSIRO in Hobart, Tasmania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These results provide the most\ncomprehensive outlook on potential climate-driven ecological changes in the\nocean to date and can help anticipate changes in valuable marine resources\nunder climate change. As such, the results can inform ongoing international\nclimate and biodiversity negotiations. The study has been compiled over the past\n6 years by the international FishMIP consortium, a group of experts and\nmodellers on marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change (see links below), in\ncollaboration with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project\n(ISIMIP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adds co-author Marta Coll of the Institute of Marine Science in Barcelona, Spain: \u201cOur study represents a major undertaking, where we used for the first time a comparative and standardized approach of 6 global marine ecosystem models forced with 2 Earth-system models and 4 emission scenarios with and without fishing. Only collaborating together we could show that the uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth-system models were similar and that ensemble projections performed well when compared to empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of such a study to project future outcomes<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

FIGURE: Projected changes of marine animal\nbiomass by the end of the 21st<\/sup> century (% increase or % decrease\ncompared to the end of the 20th<\/sup> century) under two IPCC emission\nscenarios:  RCP2.6 assumes strong mitigation,\nRCP8.6 assumes business-as-usual emissions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Climate change will affect the distribution and abundance of marine life, but the full extent of these changes under future warming has been difficult to predict due to the limitations […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":12339,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":[],"_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[447],"tax-big-challenge":[33,36],"yoast_head":"\nComprehensive global analysis shows a warmer ocean will hold lower animal abundance - 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